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Who will race alongside Francesco Bagnaia in 2025? When will Pedro Acosta make his debut in the official KTM team? And what riders will Aprilia field next season? These are just some of the questions holding sway in MotoGP after the third round of the championship, following the news of Fabio Quartararo's renewal with Yamaha. A rider market that is already beginning to be in turmoil, while in Superbike, by contrast, all is still quiet. Waiting to find out what decision Alvaro Bautista will make about his future.
While last season it was Toprak Razgatlioglu's transfer to BMW that was the catalyst, giving way to the moves of Jonathan Rea and Axel Bassani to Yamaha and Kawasaki, respectively. This time, it could be Bautista who triggers a domino effect, as he decides in the coming weeks whether to renew his contract with Ducati, which is due to expire at the end of the year, or opt for retirement. The eventual outcome of his decision is much less obvious than it was in 2023, given the uphill struggle in the pre-season and the start of the season faced by the Iberian champion. More because of the aftermath of the accident suffered in the November tests in Jerez, than because of the ballast added to his Ducati for 2024.
The possible market scenarios
Motivation is certainly not lacking for Alvaro, as well as the esteem and full confidence of the entire Aruba Ducati box. Certainly the potential shown at Barcelona has confirmed the qualities of the World Champion, whose only goal is to have fun with his Panigale, even before he starts to think about the title. If this is the case, we certainly would not be surprised to see him back in action again next season. If not, an eventual retirement of the 39-year-old would force Aruba and Ducati to think about a replacement, and a likely candidate for that goes by the name of Andrea Iannone.
Although he is making his debut in the production-based World Championship after four years of disqualification, The Maniac has proven his immense talent by immediately establishing himself among the key protagonists of the championship and would certainly have no problem picking up the baton from the Spanish champion. He could also build on his MotoGP background, specifically with the factory Ducati team. With most of the riders already sorted for next season, the Borgo Panigale manufacturer might otherwise think of opting for Danilo Petrucci or even look toward some name from MotoGP, although the latter track seems unlikely to be feasible. One name, however? Jack Miller...
Should Bautista decide instead to continue his association with Ducati, it might be BMW that grabs another hotshot, offering Iannone an official seat next to Razgatlioglu, in line with the expiry of Michael van der Mark's contract at the end of the season. A deadline shared, among others, with Dominique Aegerter and Remy Gardner, as well as Motoxracing rider Bradley Ray, which, still on the subject of Italians, might open a window for Stefano Manzi to make the jump to the category in 2025.
The production-based rider transfer market has yet to take off, but all that remains is to prepare for a season that promises to be incandescent on this front.
